The third quarter of 2024 was characterized by global market volatility, driven by key factors like monetary policy adjustments, political shifts, and sector rotations. In the US, mixed sector performances were influenced by fluctuating interest rate expectations and a weakening jobs market, sparking concerns about an economic slowdown. Europe experienced similar conditions, with rate adjustments by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, amid softening economic data. Meanwhile, emerging markets, notably China, saw significant gains supported by stimulus measures.
Domestic Outlook (South Africa)
The South African market ended Q3 2024 on a positive note, driven by a combination of economic growth, currency strength, and favourable policy adjustments. South Africa's economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting resilience despite global headwinds. A key highlight was the uninterrupted power supply from Eskom, a significant improvement compared to the frequent load-shedding issues that had previously hindered economic activity. This stability provided much-needed support to the manufacturing and retail sectors, contributing to the overall growth.
Another major development in Q3 was the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the overnight rate down from 8.25% to 8.00%. This marked the first rate cut in several years, aimed at supporting domestic growth in the face of global uncertainties. The rate cut was made possible by easing inflation pressures, partially driven by the appreciation of the South African rand. The stronger rand, which benefited from a weakening US dollar, helped to lower import costs and improve inflation expectations. The reduced inflation risk also led to gains in inflation-linked bonds, while the broader bond market showed mixed results as investors balanced lower yields against the potential for foreign capital inflows attracted by the stronger currency.
Funds weighted heavily in local assets, such as those in the financial, retail, and manufacturing sectors, performed well during the quarter. The improved economic confidence and currency stability contributed to this strong performance. In contrast, funds with significant international exposure faced challenges due to the strengthening rand, which reduced the value of offshore holdings when converted back to local currency (ZAR).
The real estate market also showed signs of improvement, with property funds benefiting from the combination of lower interest rates and stronger currency conditions.
US
In the US, equity markets advanced in Q3, with the Federal Reserve initiating its first rate-cutting cycle in four years. The 50 basis point cut in September, prompted by moderating inflation and a weakening labour market, helped ease recession fears. Corporate earnings remained resilient, further stabilizing investor sentiment. Key US indices showed solid gains: the Dow Jones rose by 8.7%, the NASDAQ by 2.8%, and the S&P 500 by 5.9%. However, concerns linger as the US presidential election approaches, with Kamala Harris emerging as the Democratic candidate following President Biden's withdrawal.
China
China’s economy showed signs of a modest recovery in Q3, though a slow start to the second half of the year led to additional stimulus measures. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduced both the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate and the reserve requirement rate, which stimulated a market rebound. Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 22.3% and the MSCI China Index up by 23.6%, fuelled by aggressive government stimulus efforts despite ongoing challenges in the property market.
This quarter highlighted both the challenges and opportunities in the global economic landscape, with ongoing adjustments in monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, and sector dynamics shaping market performance.
Europe and UK
In Europe, Q3 2024 was marked by cautious optimism as both the Eurozone and the UK experienced moderate growth despite challenging economic conditions. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points in July to combat persistent inflation, but economic data signalled a slowdown in key sectors, such as manufacturing and services, which tempered growth expectations. The UK faced similar dynamics, with the Bank of England (BoE) also implementing rate hikes as inflation remained above target. However, economic activity softened, and consumer confidence waned, driven by high borrowing costs and sluggish wage growth. Both the Euro Stoxx 50 and FTSE 100 posted gains in Q3, with the former rising by 4.1% and the latter by 3.5%, buoyed by resilient corporate earnings and the stabilization of energy prices. Still, concerns about high inflation, slowing growth, and potential stagflation weighed on the outlook for the remainder of the year. Investors are now watching closely for signals of further rate adjustments and fiscal measures as the region continues to navigate its economic challenges.
Looking ahead, the sustained strength of the rand could reduce inflationary pressures and create more space for SARB to maintain or further cut interest rates, which would be beneficial for growth sectors like retail and property. However, the risk remains that global economic or geopolitical events could lead to a reversal of the rand's appreciation, putting pressure on local assets and reversing some of the gains seen during Q3. Investors are closely monitoring both domestic policy signals and external factors that could influence market sentiment as South Africa navigates its ongoing economic recovery.